Gingrich Knows Best... But Romney Wins

The most recent Newt Gingrich ad (above) picks a moment from the last debate and calls it “The Moment”. It shows the former Speaker saying that “more people have been put on food stamps by Barack Obama than any other president in history” (which PolitiFact deems a “half-truth”). That’s followed up by a token religious reference (it’s South Carolina after all) and a statement where he’s saying that he’ll put poor people to work.

Actually, Gingrich is looking pretty good right now. Today, former Alaska Governor and professional hell-raiser Sarah Palin urged South Carolinians to vote for the former Speaker in Saturday’s primary. It should not be seen as a complete endorsement, however. Palin is obviously not happy with Romney and wants the primary process to go on beyond South Carolina; a firm win for Romney there would effectively end it. The only question is, if Romney does win big, could Palin still jump into the race and change everything? Still, Gingrich is obviously confident; he recently urged Rick Perry and Rick Santorum to drop out and endorse him. He needs to win South Carolina or this race is over for the Speaker. As for Ron Paul, he doesn’t need to win anything; he’s in the race to influence the platform and the party as a whole.

Let’s take a look at the polls ahead of the primary this Saturday. South Carolina is a much tighter race for Romney than New Hampshire ever was. According to RealClearPolitics, he does have a 10.3 point lead, but that’s much less than in New Hampshire. Gingrich is number two, and Paul and Santorum share a distant third place. If this trend turns out to be true on Saturday, it’s a done deal for Romney… unless Palin or someone else orchestrates a coup of some kind.

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